The funny
thing about rumors is that sometimes they're based entirely
in theoretical fiction. Take, for example, the theory that
a four gigabyte iPod could be profitably sold for under a hundred
dollars:
it spread across the internet at the speed the Melissa
virus, to the point that it
was nearly a generally-accepted fact across the Mac Web by
the time Steve Jobs took the stage
Tuesday.
Too bad it
was nothing more than a theory.
Unfortunately
for those of us watching the keynote who had been following
the pre-expo rumors, that theory caused us to suffer a
collective seizure when Steve announced that the
introductory
price of the new "iPod mini" would be $249. We all
had the exact same thought, which went something like "two
hundred and forty-nine dollars? But that's more than
ninety-nine dollars! That's, like, a lot more. How dare
Apple set the price so much higher than the price theorized
in the rumors?".
And so most of us walked away from the keynote feeling as if
we'd just watched a fantastic football game in which our team
had fumbled away the victory in the waning seconds.
Well, I've
had a full day to digest the sad tale of the overpriced iPod
mini, and I've come to the realization that it's not so sad
after all. And it's not so overpriced, either. Now, I'm not
saying that I think the mini has nearly the value of the other
iPods, and I'm not saying that I would necessarily recommend the
mini to anyone, but I think it's going to sell respectably
well after all. Mainly because the thirteen-year-old girls
who are going to
be begging
their parents for a neon-pink iPod mini, aren't typically the
types to read Mac rumor sites in advance of a MacWorld Keynote.
And
neither are their parents, for that matter. They'll just see
it in their local Target store next month and really want one.
We close
Mac followers had a false expectation for the mini's price
not only because we kept seeing "$99" repeatedly
across the Mac Web, but also because when it comes down to
it, we're geeks.
We're looking at the iPod mini as a computer peripheral. We
look at the fact that the mini is missing roughly three-fourths
the
capacity
of the
15
GB
iPod,
yet retains
more
than eighty
percent of its price. But you know how the non-geeks look at
this? They see a smaller, far cuter iPod that's not only fifty
dollars closer to being a reality for them, but also comes
in their favorite color. The word "gigabyte" is merely
something they skip over while reading the side of the box,
and they are comfortable with the fact that
the mini holds a thousand songs...which if you've never owned
an iPod, sounds like an awful lot.
See, what's
truly remarkable about the two-year iPod phenomenon is that
it's transcended the computer industry to the point that the
even
the least-computer
literate people on earth know that they want an iPod, even
before they fully know what an iPod is. Anyone who wants to
argue against Apple's iPod strategy up to this
point
will also have to argue against the fact that the iPod is the
number one-selling digital music player out there. One would
also have to contend with the fact that the iPod has accomplished
this despite its average selling price not dropping by one
penny since
its
introduction
(still
averaging $399 until the mini's introduction). In fact, Apple
has been smart enough to keep its iPod advertising entirely
free
of
geek-speak
altogether.
The typical geek already knows, for example, that the iPod
doubles
as a
FireWire
hard drive. The
non-geeks simply don't care. They might later on, but this
is about getting them hooked into the Apple product line. Later
on when they realize the want more capacity, they can pass
the mini on to their kid brother and get a real iPod if necessary.
Those
geeks who remain unconvinced that the iPod mini is priced correctly,
need look no further than the new Rio digital music player
announced just one day earlier. Not only does it sport the
same four gigabyte capacity as the iPod mini, it's got the
same identical $249 price tag. In other words, Apple isn't
trying to gouge anyone here. The reality of the marketplace
is that profitably selling a four-gig music player with a tiny
hard drive currently requires charging more than any of us
would like to see. So should Apple have simply waited to introduce
the mini until component prices have fallen to the point that
the price tag falls comfortably beneath the two hundred dollar
mark? That was my first gut reaction. And it would be the right
move...in
a vacuum.
But by not releasing a four-gig player,
Apple would have forfeited that portion of the market to those
companies who did.
Only time
will tell just how large or small that portion of the market
is. I honestly don't have a clue what the demand for it will
be,
and I don't
think
that
Apple does
either. But no matter the ultimate size of the market for a
four-gig player, Apple will end up with its share. Sure, the
$249 price is far from a breakthrough, but it's no worse than
anyone else is offering. And as the component prices for microdrives
inevitably drop, so too will the price that Apple charges customers.
If the market for microdrive-based music players takes off,
Apple will be there right in the thick of it with the mini.
If not, then thank heavens that Apple didn't screw with its
"real" iPod line in the process, right?
Yeah, that's
right. Think of the mini as an experiment running alongside
the real thing. The choice of colors, the abandonment of the
mirrored backside, the four buttons being integrated into the
scroll wheel...each of those might turn out to be wise moves
for the iPod or they might not. But while Apple tests out those
theories on its #2 iPod line, the "real" iPods can
still continue to sell by the truckload to the awaiting masses,
free from
experimentation. Once the verdict comes in on the various trial
balloons that Apple has floated on the back of the mini, only
then will Apple redesign the real thing. In the mean time,
despite being nothing more than one big (little) trail balloon,
the mini will be scarfed down by those who care more about
color than capacity,
or
those
who
want
something
small
enough
to
strap
to their
arm
while
jogging.
Just how
big is that market? Heck if I know. Heck if Steve Jobs knows.
I doubt the competition knows either. Read what you will into
the fact that the newly-unveiled iPod television ad still features
the
full-size
iPod, and not
the
mini. But even if the market for mini iPods turns out to be
no bigger than the market for Crystal Pepsi, Apple can simply
fold it up with no real harm done to the real iPod line,
with quite a bit of experimental market research gained
in the process. And no, the mini isn't the next Cube,
which was unjustifiably more expensive than the standard Power
Macintosh. The mini's not as cheap as we all wish it were,
but it is cheaper than the standard iPod...a product
that,
when
it was unveiled two years ago, they said wouldn't sell either...because
of its price. And
we all know how that turned out. :)
Click here
to read Bill's Blog.
Give
me a
shout,
or share your thoughts over on the billpalmer.net
discussion boards. And if you haven't
joined the online
MUG yet, then you're not among the 293 coolest
Mac users on earth.
