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Four weeks to MacWorld San Francisco: is Steve Jobs even going to show up this year?

by Bill Palmer

Sunday, December 7th, 2003

I remember it like it was yesterday: I was standing there on the streets of San Francisco, outside the Moscone Center, at 6:00 in the morning, in literally the coldest weather I'd ever been in (what do you want, I'm from Florida). I was about to spend three hours in that nasty, windy mess, in a line that rivaled anything I'd ever seen, just so that I could see Steve Jobs deliver the Keynote address at MacWorld Expo.

Let's back up about five days. I'd flown cross-country to San Francisco on the morning of January 1st, 2000, with the then-swirling Y2K paranoia making my flight uniquely affordable. My flight took off at 9:00 am, and I figured that if all the planes were crashing that morning due to Y2K date glitches, I'd have heard about it by that time. The plan worked in the sense that my plane didn't go down, but when I arrived and I realized just how cold and windy the Bay Area really was, I kind of wished my flight had made an emergency landing in...I don't know...somewhere warm.

By the time the morning of the Keynote rolled around five days later, I was frozen stiff, sick, achy, a total mess...and yet somehow willing to stand for three hours in temperatures I'd only previously experienced by standing in the walk-in freezer at my dad's restaurant when I was a kid. To kill time, I began calling friends back home to tell them where I was and what I was doing. Their responses ranged from "huh?" to "why would you do that?" to "you idiot!". I guess you can tell that none of them were Mac users.

And that's the beauty of the Macintosh community -- we're so excited to hear about what's coming next to our platform, that we'll do things we normally would never do. Since I'm not in a position to attend the January 2004 MacWorld Expo in San Francisco in person, I'll probably hunt down a place with a live satellite feed so that I can watch Steve Jobs' Keynote address in style.

But wait a minute -- is Steve really delivering the Keynote this year?

A few years ago, that would have seemed like a silly question. But these days, with the demise of MacWorld Expo New York and deteriorating relations between Apple and MacWorld Expo producer IDG, is anything a given? Under the "Keynote" listing, the MacWorld Expo website simply contains the message:

Come join us for the Macworld Conference and Expo Keynote, which has a long-standing tradition of delivering a high-powered message that sets the pace for the future of the Mac OS platform.

Kind of late in the game not to have named a Keynote speaker, isn't it? I'm still holding out hope that IDG will reconsider my standing offer to deliver the Keynote speech myself, but at this point I'd settle for hearing that I've come in a close second to his Steveness. Last year's San Francisco Keynote was fantastic, featuring everything from the 12 and 17 inch PowerBooks, to Keynote, to Safari. But Apple has already released iTunes for Windows and the 20 inch iMac this winter, and rumor has it that the PowerBook line will see a refurb any day now, so what exactly would Steve be announcing this year if he took the stage at Moscone Center?

Perhaps nothing. Maybe there are no new products ready to go, and maybe there's no strategic advantage to pre-announcing any of the new products that won't be ready until later in 2004. And if that's the case, I can live with that. It never made sense that Apple announced so many new products in early January at MacWorld, two weeks after the Christmas buying season had concluded. But you know what? Steve needs to deliver the Keynote at San Francisco this year, perhaps more than any other year since he's been back at the company. Through the iPod and the iTunes Music Store, Apple has the attention of "the outside world" right now like it never has before. And while the attendees at any given MacWorld Expo are naturally mostly Mac users, the worldwide attention that any Stevenote receives from the mainstream media will certainly reach Mac users and non-Mac users alike. And there's no reason for Steve to pass up that little freebie.

I don't care if Steve Jobs gets up there and simply sums up the great things that Apple has accomplished in the past twelve months, praises Apple employees everywhere, and then lets Phil Schiller or Jon Rubenstein (or the janitor at Apple Headquarters, for that matter) spend the rest of the two hours talking about their favorite flavor of ice cream. Steve needs to show his face, one way or the other, so that the media will acknowledge that Apple still has a presence at MacWorld Expo, and no, the platform isn't dying. As we all know, there are plenty of members of the mainstream press who still look for any excuse to declare that Mac users are on the wane, and Steve's disappearance from both the east-coast and west-coast expos would give them just the ammunition they're looking for. So if nothing else, Steve needs to show up and wave at the crowd.

But that just wouldn't be Steve Jobs' style. If he shows up at MacWorld Expo next month, the Keynote will likely be another powerhouse event like last year. Instead of Keynote, perhaps we'll see Apple's long-awaited entry into the professional word processing space. Apple could call it "Word to your Mother". Instead of Safari, maybe we'll get a revolutionary new version of Sherlock that takes net tasks to a while new level of simplicity...only to have the makers of Watson once again cry foul and threaten to port their product to OS/2. Instead of big and little PowerBooks, we just might see the unveiling of a next-generation iPod that offers new and intuitive functionality previously only available on third-party devices that sucked. You just never know.

Looking back at that memorable San Francisco Keynote in 2000, the primary announcements of the day didn't amount to much in the long term. MacOS X was formally unveiled, but it wouldn't ship for two more years. The free iTools services that Apple gave away that day, are no longer free. And Apple's high-profile investment in Earthlink never went anywhere. But still, it was so much more fun to see Steve announce this stuff in person, than to read about it in a ho-hum press release. And the surrounding attention was enough to land MacOS X on the cover of Forbes magazine, even if it didn't really exist yet, which if nothing else told the world that yes, OS X  really was conceived before Windows XP, and yes, XP really was nothing more than a desperate rip-off attempt after the fact. Sure, standing in line in the cold for that Keynote (and spending the week in that same cold) made me so sick that took seemingly forever to get over it, but that was all part of the adventure.

None of the friends I called that morning ever did understand why I went all the way to the west coast just to see someone make a speech and attend a few workshops. But then again, they're all still using Windows, and last I checked, none of them would come close to describing their computing experience as "enjoyable". And that's the irony of MacWorld Expo: if Windows users could be forced to attend the Expo, even once, they'd walk away understanding what computing is supposed to be like...and yet, most Windows users would never have enough faith ahead of time to travel to San Francisco and find out what they don't know they're missing out on.

But with Apple currently holding the attention of so many Windows users, now would be the time that they would actually stop and pay attention to an article or a broadcast about a major speech being delivered by Apple's chief. So even though none of the newfound Windows-using disciples of the iPod and iTunes are likely to attend MacWorld Expo in January, it's the perfect opportunity for Steve to reach them and let them know what else they've been missing out on.

I want to encourage all readers to join the newly-announced online Mac User Group at billpalmer.net, which is completely free to join. The group exists solely through email, newsletters, and discussion boards, and the only "meetings" are held through iChat. There are no membership requirements beyond entering your name and email address into the entry form. If you type slowly, it'll take you about four seconds to join. The benefits include discounts, special offers, a monthly newsletter...and you can take pride in saying that you're a member of a Mac User Group. For more info, just click here.

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