Monday, February 28, 2005
The Mac Mini, six weeks later
Six weeks ago, Apple dropped a bomb on the Macintosh universe that was so stunningly out of character with the company's history of forward thinking that, despite swirling rumors, I could never have imagined that it would actually happen. I'm talking about, of course, the Mac Mini.
The target market for the Mac Mini is, as we all know, a Windows PC user who has placed such importance on continuing to use his current monitor, keyboard, and mouse, that the horrifying thought of giving up these three cherished items has caused the individual to continue using Windows, even after deciding that he would rather be using a Mac. In addition, this individual's keyboard and mouse have USB connectors, his monitor is high-quality enough that he wants to continue using it with his next computer, and his PC's minitower is something that he wants to immediately place in a dumpster.
When we step back and look at who might fall into the above target market, however, we realize that the described individual is going to be buying an extreme low-end $499 Mac, meaning that his existing PC is likely also of the extreme low-end $499 variety. This means that that the odds are very strong that his existing keyboard and mouse use PS/2 connectors, as do most keyboards and mice that come with a low-end PC, so the individual is not going to be able to re-use them unless he manages to track down a USB-to-PS/2 adapter that he likely doesn't even know exists. Also, because his existing computer is a low-end machine, it likely came with an equally low-end monitor that he has no particular desire to continue using with his next computer. And of course, even if he does end up re-using his monitor, keyboard, and mouse with his new Mac Mini, then he'll have his existing PC minitower that will no longer be usable.
If, of course, his existing PC is so old that it's ready for the dumpster anyway, then he can just toss it. But if the PC is that old, then so are the monitor, keyboard, and mouse, meaning that they're likely also going in the dumpster as well, meaning that he has nothing to connect to his new Mac Mini, and no way to use it unless he goes shopping first. And on the other hand, if his existing PC is new enough that it's still relevant, then he's going to want to sell it to someone else. But he can't really do that, because he's just taken away the keyboard, monitor, and mouse for use with his new Mac Mini. So the odds are that if he sells his old PC, he'll end up having to sell the keyboard, monitor, and mouse along with it, meaning that he's right back to having nothing to connect to his new Mac Mini.
Or maybe he's planning on keeping his old PC around. But if he uses a KVM switch so that his new Mac Mini and his old PC share the same monitor, keyboard, and mouse, then of course only one of them can be used a time. And since any household with more than one person in it faces the eternal problem of fighting over computer time, the very last thing they'd want to do is so set their two computers up so that only one of them can be used at any given time. So if the old PC is going to be set up as a machine for the spouse or kids to use, then it's going to need its own keyboard, monitor, and mouse, meaning that once again, there's nothing to connect to the new Mac Mini -- unless of course you're one of those types that just happens to have closets full of old computer peripherals lying around that all just happen to have modern-day connectors, and such fates are reserved only for the most hard-core of computer geeks.
The upshot of all this, unless you just refuse to let it sink in, is that it turns out that the proposed target market for the Mac Mini is so incredibly narrow that it almost doesn't exist. In nearly all cases, the eMac is a better low-end solution the Mac Mini, and the iMac is a better high-end solution. And this is before you get to the fact that anyone connecting a PC-based keyboard and mouse to a Mac Mini will have zero USB ports available for a printer or an iPod, the fact that a PC keyboard doesn't necessarily have the same keys as a Mac keyboard, the fact that a Mac Mini connected to a 17 inch CRT monitor takes up more combined desk space than an eMac, the fact that a Mac Mini is too small to be placed in the below-the-desk location that most PC users are used to placing their minitower, the fact that an ever-increasing percentage of Mac sales take place in Apple Stores and yet those same Apple Stores don't sell a monitor for less then a thousand dollars, and a whole host of other hijinks.
How Apple could have somehow managed to not realize any of the metric tons of reasons why bringing the Mac Mini to market was a bad idea, is something that I believe will end up going down as one of the most bizarre moments in Macintosh history.
And yet, for all the obvious myriad reasons why the Mac Mini was a mistake, it's exactly the sort of product that a lot of folks on the Mac Web seem to think the rest of the world ought to be using. Call it a geek's false vision, if you will. But the fact remains that a lot of Mac folks who like to hang out on Mac-related websites all day are simply in love with this machine, and have in fact spent years demanding that Apple bring it to market. So I guess I managed to put myself in a rather interesting situation when I was the one person on the Mac Web willing stand up and point out just how bad of an idea the Mac Mini was, and to openly question and criticize Apple for totally blowing it that day.
I just didn't think the reaction would be quite this absurd.
Anywhere I go on the Mac Web these days, it seems there's a group following me, sort of anti-groupies if you will, who manage to follow me around to see just how thoroughly they can embarrass themselves. You know the type. I post something on one of my sites, or a comment one some other Mac site, and someone feels the need to respond by making a reference to their anatomy. I write an article about the Mac Mini, and someone responds by sending me an email accusing me of being a drug-addicted Apple hater. I point out that there has been no advertising for the Mac Mini whatsoever, and someone claims that there have been no Mac-related advertisements during the entire Jobs era, while warning me that I'm losing my mind.
Fortunately, such bottom-feeders appear to be a small group. Not to say that most folks on the Mac Web didn't disagree with me about the Mac Mini's prospects. In fact, nearly Mac-related every site out there stepped up to proclaim the Mac Mini the "savior" of the platform, in most cases even going so far as to ignore the fact that the Mac's marketshare was already growing before the Mac Mini began shipping. No one, it seems, wants to hear a word about the possibility that the Mac Mini is anything other than the perfect computer and the perfect idea.
As part of my regular routine, about once a week a trace back to any and all instances in which someone clicked on a link to visit this site, just to see where the traffic is coming from, perhaps more out of curiosity than anything. So yeah, I found my way to all those "Bill Palmer is wrong" posts on various Mac sites, and the "Bill Palmer is an idiot" posts as well. The extent to which someone will go to demonize anyone with clear evidence showing something that they don't want to hear, it would seem, has almost no limit. The Mac Mini is perfect, it's going to be a huge succes, and don't dare say anything that might point to either of those not being infinitely true.
Is the Mac Mini currently selling well? We have no way of knowing. Ask any Mac Mini worshiper, though, and you'll be told that the two-to-four week wait to get one is irrefutable evidence that the Mac Mini is the most popular Mac model of all time. I mean, it couldn't be that it's backordered simply because Apple didn't build many of them in the first place, meaning that any amount of orders would cause a backorder. And ask them why Apple hasn't lifted a finger to advertise this supposed savior of the platform, and the worshipers will say that there's no reason to advertise it, because the two-to-four week wait proves that gazillions of them are already being sold. Ask them why Apple began slashing prices on most Mac Mini configurations just two weeks after the product went on sale, and they'll claim that so many trillions of Mac Minis are being sold that Apple wanted to cut prices already. Ask them why Apple has chosen not to announce the early sales numbers of the Mac Mini, as it almost always does with new Mac models that amass large sales right out of the gate, and they'll tell you that it's because Apple doesn't want anyone else ordering a Mac Mini right now, because they're back-ordered, and that a press release might cause even more quintillions of backorders.
Don't dare suggest that Apple initially built an extremely small number of Mac Minis because it had low expectations for the product, or that the lack of advertising might mean that Apple sees the myriad problems with the Mac Mini as a mainstream machine, or that the lack of a press release about initial sales might mean that there haven't been enough sales to brag about, or that the quick price cuts might mean what quick price cuts almost always mean: that sales weren't satisfactory, Oh, I don't know if any of this is really the case, but don't dare suggest any of it -- unless you want your own anti-fan club following you around.
Not that things have been going anything less than fantastic lately. MacMischief has already established itself as a leader in Mac news and has an insane amount of traffic to back that up, iPod Garage is at the best place it's ever been, and LoadPod's recent success is so scary that I almost don't like talking about it for fear of cursing it. So much for the one individual whose response to my initial take on the Mac Mini was "You're finished, Palmer."
But as far as the anti-fan club, I've noticed something new and a bit surprising in the past week or so. In a few places, not too many, but a few places, I've seen some folks on some sites taking a look at what we've seen so far from the Mac Mini and saying something along the lines of "maybe Palmer was right after all." In fact, one person even managed to more or less prove my original point by saying something along the lines of "Everyone I know was going to buy one of these, so I thought everyone on earth would do the same, but it turns out everyone I know hangs out here on this site with me all day." That's something of a loose paraphrase, as I can't find the original forum in which I read it, but you get the idea.
The kicker, of course, is that in the nearly two years that I've been publishing this site, I've been right about a lot of things. And, accordingly, I've been wrong about quite a few things as well. It's what happens when your site is built around your opinions, thoughts, and predictions. And if anything, I think I've managed to establish myself as anything but a one-issue candidate. The fact that I haven't written much of anything lately is merely a sign that I haven't been able to find enough time to sit down and spit it out. Well, I suppose that needs to change. There are, in fact, interesting things going on out there, and I've got plenty to say about them, and if my anti-fan club doesn't like it, then that's just too bad.
So my big goal this month is to get back in the swing of things here, to find the time to return to daily writing, even if only bits and pieces of it at a time, so that I don't end up leaving the page empty all week and then try to make up for it with miniature novels such as this post.
It's fifty-six minutes away from being a new month, and so we'll see what happens.
Much thanks,
Bill
Six weeks ago, Apple dropped a bomb on the Macintosh universe that was so stunningly out of character with the company's history of forward thinking that, despite swirling rumors, I could never have imagined that it would actually happen. I'm talking about, of course, the Mac Mini.
The target market for the Mac Mini is, as we all know, a Windows PC user who has placed such importance on continuing to use his current monitor, keyboard, and mouse, that the horrifying thought of giving up these three cherished items has caused the individual to continue using Windows, even after deciding that he would rather be using a Mac. In addition, this individual's keyboard and mouse have USB connectors, his monitor is high-quality enough that he wants to continue using it with his next computer, and his PC's minitower is something that he wants to immediately place in a dumpster.
When we step back and look at who might fall into the above target market, however, we realize that the described individual is going to be buying an extreme low-end $499 Mac, meaning that his existing PC is likely also of the extreme low-end $499 variety. This means that that the odds are very strong that his existing keyboard and mouse use PS/2 connectors, as do most keyboards and mice that come with a low-end PC, so the individual is not going to be able to re-use them unless he manages to track down a USB-to-PS/2 adapter that he likely doesn't even know exists. Also, because his existing computer is a low-end machine, it likely came with an equally low-end monitor that he has no particular desire to continue using with his next computer. And of course, even if he does end up re-using his monitor, keyboard, and mouse with his new Mac Mini, then he'll have his existing PC minitower that will no longer be usable.
If, of course, his existing PC is so old that it's ready for the dumpster anyway, then he can just toss it. But if the PC is that old, then so are the monitor, keyboard, and mouse, meaning that they're likely also going in the dumpster as well, meaning that he has nothing to connect to his new Mac Mini, and no way to use it unless he goes shopping first. And on the other hand, if his existing PC is new enough that it's still relevant, then he's going to want to sell it to someone else. But he can't really do that, because he's just taken away the keyboard, monitor, and mouse for use with his new Mac Mini. So the odds are that if he sells his old PC, he'll end up having to sell the keyboard, monitor, and mouse along with it, meaning that he's right back to having nothing to connect to his new Mac Mini.
Or maybe he's planning on keeping his old PC around. But if he uses a KVM switch so that his new Mac Mini and his old PC share the same monitor, keyboard, and mouse, then of course only one of them can be used a time. And since any household with more than one person in it faces the eternal problem of fighting over computer time, the very last thing they'd want to do is so set their two computers up so that only one of them can be used at any given time. So if the old PC is going to be set up as a machine for the spouse or kids to use, then it's going to need its own keyboard, monitor, and mouse, meaning that once again, there's nothing to connect to the new Mac Mini -- unless of course you're one of those types that just happens to have closets full of old computer peripherals lying around that all just happen to have modern-day connectors, and such fates are reserved only for the most hard-core of computer geeks.
The upshot of all this, unless you just refuse to let it sink in, is that it turns out that the proposed target market for the Mac Mini is so incredibly narrow that it almost doesn't exist. In nearly all cases, the eMac is a better low-end solution the Mac Mini, and the iMac is a better high-end solution. And this is before you get to the fact that anyone connecting a PC-based keyboard and mouse to a Mac Mini will have zero USB ports available for a printer or an iPod, the fact that a PC keyboard doesn't necessarily have the same keys as a Mac keyboard, the fact that a Mac Mini connected to a 17 inch CRT monitor takes up more combined desk space than an eMac, the fact that a Mac Mini is too small to be placed in the below-the-desk location that most PC users are used to placing their minitower, the fact that an ever-increasing percentage of Mac sales take place in Apple Stores and yet those same Apple Stores don't sell a monitor for less then a thousand dollars, and a whole host of other hijinks.
How Apple could have somehow managed to not realize any of the metric tons of reasons why bringing the Mac Mini to market was a bad idea, is something that I believe will end up going down as one of the most bizarre moments in Macintosh history.
And yet, for all the obvious myriad reasons why the Mac Mini was a mistake, it's exactly the sort of product that a lot of folks on the Mac Web seem to think the rest of the world ought to be using. Call it a geek's false vision, if you will. But the fact remains that a lot of Mac folks who like to hang out on Mac-related websites all day are simply in love with this machine, and have in fact spent years demanding that Apple bring it to market. So I guess I managed to put myself in a rather interesting situation when I was the one person on the Mac Web willing stand up and point out just how bad of an idea the Mac Mini was, and to openly question and criticize Apple for totally blowing it that day.
I just didn't think the reaction would be quite this absurd.
Anywhere I go on the Mac Web these days, it seems there's a group following me, sort of anti-groupies if you will, who manage to follow me around to see just how thoroughly they can embarrass themselves. You know the type. I post something on one of my sites, or a comment one some other Mac site, and someone feels the need to respond by making a reference to their anatomy. I write an article about the Mac Mini, and someone responds by sending me an email accusing me of being a drug-addicted Apple hater. I point out that there has been no advertising for the Mac Mini whatsoever, and someone claims that there have been no Mac-related advertisements during the entire Jobs era, while warning me that I'm losing my mind.
Fortunately, such bottom-feeders appear to be a small group. Not to say that most folks on the Mac Web didn't disagree with me about the Mac Mini's prospects. In fact, nearly Mac-related every site out there stepped up to proclaim the Mac Mini the "savior" of the platform, in most cases even going so far as to ignore the fact that the Mac's marketshare was already growing before the Mac Mini began shipping. No one, it seems, wants to hear a word about the possibility that the Mac Mini is anything other than the perfect computer and the perfect idea.
As part of my regular routine, about once a week a trace back to any and all instances in which someone clicked on a link to visit this site, just to see where the traffic is coming from, perhaps more out of curiosity than anything. So yeah, I found my way to all those "Bill Palmer is wrong" posts on various Mac sites, and the "Bill Palmer is an idiot" posts as well. The extent to which someone will go to demonize anyone with clear evidence showing something that they don't want to hear, it would seem, has almost no limit. The Mac Mini is perfect, it's going to be a huge succes, and don't dare say anything that might point to either of those not being infinitely true.
Is the Mac Mini currently selling well? We have no way of knowing. Ask any Mac Mini worshiper, though, and you'll be told that the two-to-four week wait to get one is irrefutable evidence that the Mac Mini is the most popular Mac model of all time. I mean, it couldn't be that it's backordered simply because Apple didn't build many of them in the first place, meaning that any amount of orders would cause a backorder. And ask them why Apple hasn't lifted a finger to advertise this supposed savior of the platform, and the worshipers will say that there's no reason to advertise it, because the two-to-four week wait proves that gazillions of them are already being sold. Ask them why Apple began slashing prices on most Mac Mini configurations just two weeks after the product went on sale, and they'll claim that so many trillions of Mac Minis are being sold that Apple wanted to cut prices already. Ask them why Apple has chosen not to announce the early sales numbers of the Mac Mini, as it almost always does with new Mac models that amass large sales right out of the gate, and they'll tell you that it's because Apple doesn't want anyone else ordering a Mac Mini right now, because they're back-ordered, and that a press release might cause even more quintillions of backorders.
Don't dare suggest that Apple initially built an extremely small number of Mac Minis because it had low expectations for the product, or that the lack of advertising might mean that Apple sees the myriad problems with the Mac Mini as a mainstream machine, or that the lack of a press release about initial sales might mean that there haven't been enough sales to brag about, or that the quick price cuts might mean what quick price cuts almost always mean: that sales weren't satisfactory, Oh, I don't know if any of this is really the case, but don't dare suggest any of it -- unless you want your own anti-fan club following you around.
Not that things have been going anything less than fantastic lately. MacMischief has already established itself as a leader in Mac news and has an insane amount of traffic to back that up, iPod Garage is at the best place it's ever been, and LoadPod's recent success is so scary that I almost don't like talking about it for fear of cursing it. So much for the one individual whose response to my initial take on the Mac Mini was "You're finished, Palmer."
But as far as the anti-fan club, I've noticed something new and a bit surprising in the past week or so. In a few places, not too many, but a few places, I've seen some folks on some sites taking a look at what we've seen so far from the Mac Mini and saying something along the lines of "maybe Palmer was right after all." In fact, one person even managed to more or less prove my original point by saying something along the lines of "Everyone I know was going to buy one of these, so I thought everyone on earth would do the same, but it turns out everyone I know hangs out here on this site with me all day." That's something of a loose paraphrase, as I can't find the original forum in which I read it, but you get the idea.
The kicker, of course, is that in the nearly two years that I've been publishing this site, I've been right about a lot of things. And, accordingly, I've been wrong about quite a few things as well. It's what happens when your site is built around your opinions, thoughts, and predictions. And if anything, I think I've managed to establish myself as anything but a one-issue candidate. The fact that I haven't written much of anything lately is merely a sign that I haven't been able to find enough time to sit down and spit it out. Well, I suppose that needs to change. There are, in fact, interesting things going on out there, and I've got plenty to say about them, and if my anti-fan club doesn't like it, then that's just too bad.
So my big goal this month is to get back in the swing of things here, to find the time to return to daily writing, even if only bits and pieces of it at a time, so that I don't end up leaving the page empty all week and then try to make up for it with miniature novels such as this post.
It's fifty-six minutes away from being a new month, and so we'll see what happens.
Much thanks,
Bill
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