Friday, December 31, 2004
The rumor and the damage done: what Apple is really going to announce at MacWorld Expo
And here I thought I was going to get to sit this one out.
So what if someone crafts an obviously false rumor about their favorite pet fantasy product and throws it out there for everyone to once again scoff at? Hey it must be late December again, right? It's not as if anyone's going to buy into something to laughably off the wall as the tired old "headless iMac" nonsense. So why one earth did I go and get so upset about the whole thing the other day?
Because I had a strong feeling of what was going to happen, and sadly, I've been proven correct. First of all, the Mac Web has completely lost its mind. Every single piece of commentary out there this week is nothing more than a rah-rah cheerleader rendition of why this fantasy product would be so great if Apple would just do it. Of course, no one has stopped to question how removing a $50 component brings the total price down by $300, and no one has stopped to ask whether PC users in the mood to Switch to the Mac would even be remotely interested in continuing to use their old monitor. Worse, the rah-rah cheerleaders have taken the delusionalism one step further, pointing out that this product is going to save everyone so much desk space by not having a monitor built into it. I don't know how far off their rocker someone has to be to not see that the mythical "headless iMac" would still have to have a monitor connected to it one way or the other. And, according to the rah-rah plan, the monitor that they're going to connect to is going to be the same seventeen inch CRT that apparently every PC on earth has lying around the house in abundance. So tell me again how much desk space is going to be saved by ditching the eMac and instead offering the customer have an extra CPU box sitting next to a monitor that is itself as large as the eMac?
It's times like this that the Mac Web shows itself to be a little left of reality. Buncha fantasizing geeks writing commentary for consumption by regular Mac users, under the mistaken assumption that regular Mac users have the same wants and needs as the tiny geek minority who publish these sites. I suppose that's why I've spent the past few days receiving reader email thanking me for being the only one to stand up and toss a bucket of reality on the fantasy fire. Not that there haven't been a few angry email as well, with a few people going to new lengths to try to dream up a few actual niche uses for their fantasy product. Since their product has no actual potential users, I guess they feel they have to go and invent some in order to help make their case. But the vast majority of responses I received were of the "thank you" nature, which tells me that there are a whole lot of people out there who are disgusted with the way the Mac Web acts in these situations as I am.
So between now and MacWorld, the Mac Web will be absolutely worthless as far as finding decent commentary to read. And worse, even after MacWorld is over, we'll have to tolerate a week or two of those pained "Why didn't Apple give us our headless iMac?" articles. There'll even be new fake rumors spread, this time that the fantasy product is going to be launched at AppleExpo Paris or whatever major Mac-related event comes next. I really think there are some people out there who would give their lives in order to make their headless iMac fantasy come true. And that's just pathetic.
Thankfully, such types seem to be rather comfortably in the minority. But the bottom line is that we're left with a worthless Mac Web for the next month, but that's just the beginning of the problems. You see, because the "headless iMac" rumor sounds good in theory until you actually spend five minutes dissecting it, the rumor is getting picked up rather quickly by mainstream news sites. Being reported as a done deal, for that matter. So now we've got these false expectations crawling all over the news wires, and the whole world is now under the false expectation that this false rumor is actually going to happen. And unbelievably, some idiot Wall Street analyst has gone and reported it as fact, meaning that the fate of Apple's stock price now hinges on this BS rumor as well.
Now do you begin to see why the whole thing got me so pissed off the other day? Look at what we're left with here. All the discussion now centers around a theoretical product that doesn't exist, never will exist, never had any chance of ever existing...and yet now, this non-existent entity is the center of attention of the platform. So guess what happens when Steve Jobs gets up there on stage in January and doesn't launch this non-existent product? That'll be the story -- that the headless iMac didn't happen. And what about all the actual, real-world, legitimate products that he does announce that day? They'll either be swept under the rug entirely, or they'll be pooh-poohed in comparison to a fantasy product that never existed.
In other words, this false rumor has quite possibly already destroyed any chance that Apple had of making a splash at MacWorld Expo.
Let me tell you what will be announced at MacWorld with regards to the low-end of the Macintosh line. It's not all that difficult to figure out. The eMac already is the "Switcher vehicle" that the delusionals keep talking about, they just don't know it. In delusionland, the eMac is being rejected by potential Switchers because it has a built-in monitor. But in reality, Windows users are already Switching to the eMac, in droves for that matter. All you have to do is stick your head outside the delusionland bubble for a few minutes in order to get a whiff of just how many people have already switched. Or maybe I just dreamed it when I read about switcher after switcher after switcher in a Wall Street Journal article the other day. The Switch campaign was a massive success, kids, it just took some time to develop (which by the way, is exactly what I predicted way back when).
So as the Switch campaign continues to progress, the eMac will continue to be the vehicle on the low end, and will likely evolve along with it. But since in reality the monitor is a complete non-issue among potential Switchers on the low end, the eMac will continue to have a built-in monitor. Duh. There will be changes, though:
1) The price will fall. The components of the eMac are sufficiently standard-fare that Apple's cost of mass-producing the machine has to be gradually falling, which means that Apple will be in a position to once again drop the price of the eMac line. Once upon a time, the base eMac sold for $1099, and now it can be had for a mere $799. At MacWorld, it's entirely feasible that Apple will lower its price to $699, or if Apple wants to give up its margins entirely, perhaps even $599.
But since the rumored fantasy product was supposed to clock in at $499, the breakthrough pricing of the eMac will look lame in comparison.
2) The design will evolve. You'll recall that the eMac was originally designed only for the education market, meaning that design aesthetic was not part of the original equation. For that matter, it's even possible that the eMac was made to look overly non-cool in comparison to the flat-panel iMac, so that potential buyers would lean toward the iMac. But now that Apple does have so many more potential Switchers lined up (thanks to the iPod, viruses, etc.), you might see Apple decide to redesign the eMac to make it look more palatable to potential Switchers. Not that there's a whole lot you can do with a built-in 17 inch CRT monitor, mind you, but Jonathan Ive has been known to work design wonders with even greater obstacles. The only thing we know for sure is that the new eMac design will continue to have a built-in monitor.
But since the rumored fantasy product was supposed to look infinitely cool (and even alleviate the need for the user to have a monitor on their desk at all), the stylish design of the new eMac will look lame in comparison.
3) The eMac will continue to carry the same software bundle as the G5 iMac. I don't know if there's a bigger "duh" than this one. If iLife '05 is ready to go at MacWorld, then the new eMac will come bundled with it. If the successor to AppleWorks 6 is ready, then it's the same story. But if not, then the new eMac will continue to come bundled with AppleWorks 6. Despite the continual bashing by Mac Elitists who are trying to look cool, AppleWorks 6 is a damn fine product. I use it every day, and if you were smart, you would too. But in any case it's not an issue for potential Switchers, because they're used to using absolute garbage like Microsoft Works, meaning that they're not going to care what they end up with on their new Mac. Those who want to waste money and frustration by using MS Word on their Macs will continue to do so, and the rest will be pleasantly surprised to find that AppleWorks 6 is a whole lot better word processor than anything they've ever used.
But the rumored fantasy product, on the other hand, is guaranteed to come with the successor to AppleWorks 6, whether such a successor exists or not. Apparently, if Apple would just give in and build a headless iMac, then AppleWorks 7 would just magically drop into their lap to go along with it. And so would iWorks, and iWork, and Document, and all the other supposed next-generation Apple word processors. Their existence all depends on Apple selling a Mac without a built-in monitor, and don't you forget it.
So when MacWorld Expo comes around next month and Apple unveils a new eMac with a breakthrough $599 price tag, a more stylish exterior, and the same better-than-anything-you-see-on-a-PC software bundle as ever, the whole thing is going to be bashed mercilessly -- by the geek-fueled Mac Web sites who have no idea what a regular Mac user wants, by the mainstream press who got caught up in the rush of an obviously false rumor, and even by Wall Street. It's going to be ugly. And it's going to totally obscure what should have been a banner day in Macintosh history.
It's not that PC users won't get word of the new-and-improved eMac, and it's not that they won't continue to Switch to the Mac at ever-increasing levels that even the most skeptical pundits will no longer be able to ignore. It's going to be an amazing year for the Macintosh, and being a Mac user in 2005 is going to be even more magical than ever.
But you have to figure that, to some extent at least, Apple's ability to get its message out to the right people will be hampered by the fact that the company's real products will have to spend 2005 competing against rumored fake ones.
And when you stop and realize that there will likely be a few less Switchers in 2005 as a direct result of this phony "headless iMac" rumor, you'll want the dweeb who fabricated it hanging from a tree as badly as I do.
And here I thought I was going to get to sit this one out.
So what if someone crafts an obviously false rumor about their favorite pet fantasy product and throws it out there for everyone to once again scoff at? Hey it must be late December again, right? It's not as if anyone's going to buy into something to laughably off the wall as the tired old "headless iMac" nonsense. So why one earth did I go and get so upset about the whole thing the other day?
Because I had a strong feeling of what was going to happen, and sadly, I've been proven correct. First of all, the Mac Web has completely lost its mind. Every single piece of commentary out there this week is nothing more than a rah-rah cheerleader rendition of why this fantasy product would be so great if Apple would just do it. Of course, no one has stopped to question how removing a $50 component brings the total price down by $300, and no one has stopped to ask whether PC users in the mood to Switch to the Mac would even be remotely interested in continuing to use their old monitor. Worse, the rah-rah cheerleaders have taken the delusionalism one step further, pointing out that this product is going to save everyone so much desk space by not having a monitor built into it. I don't know how far off their rocker someone has to be to not see that the mythical "headless iMac" would still have to have a monitor connected to it one way or the other. And, according to the rah-rah plan, the monitor that they're going to connect to is going to be the same seventeen inch CRT that apparently every PC on earth has lying around the house in abundance. So tell me again how much desk space is going to be saved by ditching the eMac and instead offering the customer have an extra CPU box sitting next to a monitor that is itself as large as the eMac?
It's times like this that the Mac Web shows itself to be a little left of reality. Buncha fantasizing geeks writing commentary for consumption by regular Mac users, under the mistaken assumption that regular Mac users have the same wants and needs as the tiny geek minority who publish these sites. I suppose that's why I've spent the past few days receiving reader email thanking me for being the only one to stand up and toss a bucket of reality on the fantasy fire. Not that there haven't been a few angry email as well, with a few people going to new lengths to try to dream up a few actual niche uses for their fantasy product. Since their product has no actual potential users, I guess they feel they have to go and invent some in order to help make their case. But the vast majority of responses I received were of the "thank you" nature, which tells me that there are a whole lot of people out there who are disgusted with the way the Mac Web acts in these situations as I am.
So between now and MacWorld, the Mac Web will be absolutely worthless as far as finding decent commentary to read. And worse, even after MacWorld is over, we'll have to tolerate a week or two of those pained "Why didn't Apple give us our headless iMac?" articles. There'll even be new fake rumors spread, this time that the fantasy product is going to be launched at AppleExpo Paris or whatever major Mac-related event comes next. I really think there are some people out there who would give their lives in order to make their headless iMac fantasy come true. And that's just pathetic.
Thankfully, such types seem to be rather comfortably in the minority. But the bottom line is that we're left with a worthless Mac Web for the next month, but that's just the beginning of the problems. You see, because the "headless iMac" rumor sounds good in theory until you actually spend five minutes dissecting it, the rumor is getting picked up rather quickly by mainstream news sites. Being reported as a done deal, for that matter. So now we've got these false expectations crawling all over the news wires, and the whole world is now under the false expectation that this false rumor is actually going to happen. And unbelievably, some idiot Wall Street analyst has gone and reported it as fact, meaning that the fate of Apple's stock price now hinges on this BS rumor as well.
Now do you begin to see why the whole thing got me so pissed off the other day? Look at what we're left with here. All the discussion now centers around a theoretical product that doesn't exist, never will exist, never had any chance of ever existing...and yet now, this non-existent entity is the center of attention of the platform. So guess what happens when Steve Jobs gets up there on stage in January and doesn't launch this non-existent product? That'll be the story -- that the headless iMac didn't happen. And what about all the actual, real-world, legitimate products that he does announce that day? They'll either be swept under the rug entirely, or they'll be pooh-poohed in comparison to a fantasy product that never existed.
In other words, this false rumor has quite possibly already destroyed any chance that Apple had of making a splash at MacWorld Expo.
Let me tell you what will be announced at MacWorld with regards to the low-end of the Macintosh line. It's not all that difficult to figure out. The eMac already is the "Switcher vehicle" that the delusionals keep talking about, they just don't know it. In delusionland, the eMac is being rejected by potential Switchers because it has a built-in monitor. But in reality, Windows users are already Switching to the eMac, in droves for that matter. All you have to do is stick your head outside the delusionland bubble for a few minutes in order to get a whiff of just how many people have already switched. Or maybe I just dreamed it when I read about switcher after switcher after switcher in a Wall Street Journal article the other day. The Switch campaign was a massive success, kids, it just took some time to develop (which by the way, is exactly what I predicted way back when).
So as the Switch campaign continues to progress, the eMac will continue to be the vehicle on the low end, and will likely evolve along with it. But since in reality the monitor is a complete non-issue among potential Switchers on the low end, the eMac will continue to have a built-in monitor. Duh. There will be changes, though:
1) The price will fall. The components of the eMac are sufficiently standard-fare that Apple's cost of mass-producing the machine has to be gradually falling, which means that Apple will be in a position to once again drop the price of the eMac line. Once upon a time, the base eMac sold for $1099, and now it can be had for a mere $799. At MacWorld, it's entirely feasible that Apple will lower its price to $699, or if Apple wants to give up its margins entirely, perhaps even $599.
But since the rumored fantasy product was supposed to clock in at $499, the breakthrough pricing of the eMac will look lame in comparison.
2) The design will evolve. You'll recall that the eMac was originally designed only for the education market, meaning that design aesthetic was not part of the original equation. For that matter, it's even possible that the eMac was made to look overly non-cool in comparison to the flat-panel iMac, so that potential buyers would lean toward the iMac. But now that Apple does have so many more potential Switchers lined up (thanks to the iPod, viruses, etc.), you might see Apple decide to redesign the eMac to make it look more palatable to potential Switchers. Not that there's a whole lot you can do with a built-in 17 inch CRT monitor, mind you, but Jonathan Ive has been known to work design wonders with even greater obstacles. The only thing we know for sure is that the new eMac design will continue to have a built-in monitor.
But since the rumored fantasy product was supposed to look infinitely cool (and even alleviate the need for the user to have a monitor on their desk at all), the stylish design of the new eMac will look lame in comparison.
3) The eMac will continue to carry the same software bundle as the G5 iMac. I don't know if there's a bigger "duh" than this one. If iLife '05 is ready to go at MacWorld, then the new eMac will come bundled with it. If the successor to AppleWorks 6 is ready, then it's the same story. But if not, then the new eMac will continue to come bundled with AppleWorks 6. Despite the continual bashing by Mac Elitists who are trying to look cool, AppleWorks 6 is a damn fine product. I use it every day, and if you were smart, you would too. But in any case it's not an issue for potential Switchers, because they're used to using absolute garbage like Microsoft Works, meaning that they're not going to care what they end up with on their new Mac. Those who want to waste money and frustration by using MS Word on their Macs will continue to do so, and the rest will be pleasantly surprised to find that AppleWorks 6 is a whole lot better word processor than anything they've ever used.
But the rumored fantasy product, on the other hand, is guaranteed to come with the successor to AppleWorks 6, whether such a successor exists or not. Apparently, if Apple would just give in and build a headless iMac, then AppleWorks 7 would just magically drop into their lap to go along with it. And so would iWorks, and iWork, and Document, and all the other supposed next-generation Apple word processors. Their existence all depends on Apple selling a Mac without a built-in monitor, and don't you forget it.
So when MacWorld Expo comes around next month and Apple unveils a new eMac with a breakthrough $599 price tag, a more stylish exterior, and the same better-than-anything-you-see-on-a-PC software bundle as ever, the whole thing is going to be bashed mercilessly -- by the geek-fueled Mac Web sites who have no idea what a regular Mac user wants, by the mainstream press who got caught up in the rush of an obviously false rumor, and even by Wall Street. It's going to be ugly. And it's going to totally obscure what should have been a banner day in Macintosh history.
It's not that PC users won't get word of the new-and-improved eMac, and it's not that they won't continue to Switch to the Mac at ever-increasing levels that even the most skeptical pundits will no longer be able to ignore. It's going to be an amazing year for the Macintosh, and being a Mac user in 2005 is going to be even more magical than ever.
But you have to figure that, to some extent at least, Apple's ability to get its message out to the right people will be hampered by the fact that the company's real products will have to spend 2005 competing against rumored fake ones.
And when you stop and realize that there will likely be a few less Switchers in 2005 as a direct result of this phony "headless iMac" rumor, you'll want the dweeb who fabricated it hanging from a tree as badly as I do.
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